In the scorching heat of an unprecedentedly hot summer, the ancient Red Sea port city of Jeddah seems like an unlikely setting to cool the flames of the fiercest conflict currently unfolding in Ukraine. However, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman believes he can make a difference. After playing a role in the release of foreign fighters captured by Russian forces during the Ukrainian conflict, MBS is now hosting a summit to discuss peace in the country.
Ukrainian officials view the choice of venue as a significant victory over Russia, which portrays Ukraine as only being supported by Western countries. They anticipate the attendance of approximately 40 nations, including the United States and India. Prior to the summit, Ukrainian officials stated their goal of developing a unified vision and exploring the potential of holding a future Global Peace Summit in Saudi Arabia.
However, the absence of Russia’s presence, only “monitoring” the summit, raises concerns that it may become a fleeting event, captivating but short-lived like a desert snowflake. Despite this, Ukrainian officials remain hopeful that the summit can unite the world around their cause. The United States, showing its commitment, is sending National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan to participate.
US State Department officials characterize the summit as an opportunity for Ukraine to take the lead and seek a diplomatic resolution to the ongoing war. It also allows nations that may not have direct engagement with Ukraine, such as those from the global south, to engage face-to-face with Ukrainian officials.
This summit follows a quieter gathering hosted by Denmark in June, which included 15 nations sympathetic to Russia’s argument that its invasion of Ukraine was necessary in response to NATO’s actions. However, that summit failed to produce any significant breakthrough or progress towards Ukraine’s key demand of Russian troop withdrawal. So, what sets this summit apart?
Unlike Denmark, Saudi Arabia has refrained from openly taking sides in the conflict. Moreover, MBS holds significant leverage as Saudi Arabia has become a focal point for various competing interests. In recent times, both President Biden and President Xi of China have engaged with MBS, with each leader fulfilling their respective agendas.
President Biden capitalized on the shared diplomatic achievement of a peace deal in Yemen, while President Xi conducted business and signed lucrative agreements. However, behind the scenes, a seismic diplomatic breakthrough was on the horizon. In the spring of this year, Saudi Arabia and China unveiled a confidence-building peace plan with Iran, leading to a cessation of Iranian-backed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia.
With the reopening of diplomatic missions and potential future economic cooperation, MBS aims to create stability in the oil market and strengthen trade relations in the Gulf region. Recognizing the inherent dangers posed by regional conflicts, MBS perceives the war between Russia and Ukraine, rich in oil resources and nuclear capabilities, as potentially catastrophic.
If MBS can exert influence over this conflict, he can focus on realizing his ambitious vision for a diversified Saudi Arabia that provides employment opportunities for its large young population. It is this ambition that drives him, envisioning a Saudi Arabia as a dominant geopolitical player.
During their meeting last year, President Biden urged MBS not to cut oil production, as it harmed American citizens at the gas pumps and further fueled Russia’s war efforts by driving up oil prices. However, MBS chose to reduce oil production several months later, claiming it was in the best interests of Saudi Arabia.
While this move did not sit well with Washington, it provides MBS with potential leverage over Russia. By raising or lowering oil prices, he can exert indirect pressure on Russia. While it remains uncertain whether he will exercise this influence, the fact that Putin knows MBS possesses this leverage is significant.
MBS is actively engaged in reimagining the role of Gulf Arabs, positioning them as influential stakeholders rather than rivals at odds with each other. Although still a work in progress, his efforts aim to shape a region characterized by clout and cooperation.
Moreover, discussions between Saudi Arabia and the United States regarding rapprochement with Israel are underway. These talks encompass a wide range of topics, including domestic energy nuclear power plants, F-35 fighter aircraft, and security guarantees for Saudi Arabia. Both sides seek to find common ground and make compromises.
These discussions, however, go beyond the scope of the Jeddah peace summit and Russia’s unprovoked aggression in Ukraine. They exemplify the dynamic nature of the many moving parts in the region, offering a multitude of potential trade-offs and a growing list of achievable outcomes.
As Ukraine’s staunchest supporter, the United States appreciates Saudi Arabia’s willingness to step out from the sidelines and assist President Volodymyr Zelensky. Beyond Iran, China shares mutual interests with Saudi Arabia, particularly concerning the economic risks associated with an uncontrollable escalation of the war on Europe’s doorstep.
Without China’s economic support, Russia’s ability to sustain its war efforts in Ukraine could crumble. Similarly, some nations from the global south attending the Jeddah summit, who currently purchase gas, oil, and other commodities from Russia, inadvertently contribute to propping up Putin’s war.
Therefore, Ukraine hopes to impress these nations with President Zelensky’s 10-point peace initiative. Despite being published in December of last year, Ukrainian officials believe that Russian propaganda has discredited their proposal. By engaging in individual and collective meetings with other delegates, they intend to emphasize each point of the Peace Formula.
Countering Putin’s revisionist lies will undoubtedly keep Ukraine’s representatives in Jeddah exceptionally busy. At a recent Africa conference in St. Petersburg, Putin displayed his typical Kremlin-esque inversion of logic and reality. Blaming Ukraine for the lack of peace, he asserted that an agreement from both sides was necessary for the process to begin. In essence, he claimed that a ceasefire was impractical due to the Ukrainian army’s offensive actions.
In conclusion, the Jeddah peace summit represents an opportunity for Saudi Arabia and the international community to support Ukraine and advocate for a resolution to the ongoing conflict. Beyond the immediate goals of peace in Ukraine, this summit showcases the complex and evolving dynamics of regional geopolitics, where a multitude of interests intersect. As MBS navigates this terrain, his aspirations for a dominant Saudi Arabia drive him forward, fueled by the potential leverage he holds in shaping the global oil market and fostering stronger trade relations throughout the Gulf.
