In the recent past, Turkey gained approval from the United States to procure 40 brand new F-16 Block 70 Viper fighter jets. Not satisfied with just the F-16s, Ankara also has its eyes set on an identical number of Eurofighter Typhoons.
“It’s not only about amplifying its airpower strength with modern Eurofighters, but also about intensifying military ties with Europe,” elucidates Suleyman Ozeren, a respected lecturer at the American University and senior figure at the Orion Policy Institute.
The proverbial thorn, however, is Germany’s stamp of approval, which might not be issued in haste or even at all.
Late last year, news surfaced concerning Turkey’s negotiations with the United Kingdom and Spain over acquiring 40 Eurofighters. Both London and Madrid showed willingness to supply Ankara with Typhoons, but the decision is not entirely theirs to make. Germany—a part of the consortium that manufactured Eurofighters—has the final say.
Given Germany’s opposition to several controversial actions of Turkey, including its denouncement of Israel, aggression towards Syrian Kurds, procurement of high-tech Russian missiles, and gas exploration in disputed waters of the East Mediterranean, Berlin’s rubber stamp might prove elusive.
Nonetheless, Ankara remains hopeful. Expressing optimism, a Turkish defense official relayed on the chipper morning of March 14 that ongoing negotiations with British and German officials would yield ‘positively’.
Predictably, Turkey – a NATO member – rebuked Germany, another NATO partner, for stalling the potential deal. Echoing this sentiment during a December conversation, Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler queried, “Why should an ally withhold aircrafts?”
History reveals Berlin’s propensity for blockages. Back in 2018, it thwarted a British sale of 48 Eurofighters to Saudi Arabia, a response to the latter’s military operation against the Houthi rebels in Yemen. In July, Chancellor Olaf Scholz declared that a decision regarding Eurofighter delivery to Saudi Arabia wouldn’t materialise ‘anytime soon.’
Surprisingly, by January 2024, Germany relaxed its embargo, indicating that the transaction could progress. Yet, it remains to be seen whether Berlin will express similar tolerance in Turkey’s case.
A successful procurement of Eurofighters would be a milestone for Turkey, marking its first acquisition of state-of-the-art, non-US manufactured fighter jets.
Dr. Ali Bakir, a Turkish affairs specialist at Qatar University’s Ibn Khaldon Center and an esteemed fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Security Initiative, outlines a triad of “strategic intents” underpinning Turkey’s pursuit of Eurofighters.
“Decreasing reliance on the United States for military might is the first goal,” says Bakir. Adding to this, he highlights Turkey’s objective to bridge the technology gap with other superpowers by acquiring advanced fighter jets, alongside its ambition to test the waters and gauge Europe’s readiness to partake in defense collaborations.
Rebuffing Turkey’s overture could mean a tarnishing of certain European nations’ image, possibly nudging Ankara towards cooperation with non-NATO allies, adds Bakir. He also believes that Germany’s objection might soften due to the possible moistening of Middle-Eastern refugee influxes, a major worry for Europe.
Despite these factors, Bakir admits the difficulty in predicting Berlin’s response amidst a backdrop of complicated regional dynamics.
Even as Turkey and the UK lobby for a favourable outcome, the “historical background” suggests that certain Western states remain “wary” about empowering Turkey’s military capabilities and have orchestrated attempts to stymie Turkey’s ambitions.
Bakir argues that Berlin barring the Saudi Eurofighter deal revolved around human rights concerns and criticism of Saudi’s controversial Yemen campaign. Yet, in the post-Oct-7 terrorist attack environment, Riyadh’s escalated role against Yemen’s Houthi rebels and prevention of Houthi’s attacks in the Red Sea and against Israel seems to have swayed Germany’s stance.
Turkey’s expectation hinges on a similar change of heart by Berlin. Should their efforts fail, Bakir speculates, Ankara will explore other options.
He explains, “Turkey is bent on attaining two concurrent goals: weakening reliance on single suppliers and fostering technological independence—be it through joint-ventures or solo efforts to foster indigenous defense capabilities.”
“Ultimately, the idea is not just to enhance military hardware but to mainstream Turkey’s autonomy in defense and technology development, envisioning a broader strategic dream beyond merely buying fighter jets.”
