July 27, 2023
In a significant development, top White House officials, including National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, Middle East policy deputy Brett McGurk, and energy and infrastructure adviser Amos Hochstein, met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh. The purpose of the meeting was to advance efforts to establish formal ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Initial reports of the visit were first published by the New York Times and were later confirmed by both the White House and the Saudi government. The meeting included the presence of Energy Minister Prince Salman bin Abd al-Aziz, Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, the governor of the Public Investment Fund, Yasir al-Rumayyan, and Saudi National Security Adviser Musaid al-Aiban. Additionally, Saudi Ambassador to the United States Princess Reema bint Bandar and US Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Michael Ratney were also in attendance.
According to a spokesperson from the National Security Council, the discussion encompassed normalization with Israel, alongside other important issues. The spokesperson emphasized the United States’ continued support for normalization and its commitment to engaging with regional partners to make progress towards a more peaceful, secure, prosperous, and stable Middle East region.
Reports suggest that in exchange for formalizing relations with Israel, the Saudis are requesting a NATO-style mutual defense agreement with the United States, assistance in developing a civilian nuclear program, and the provision of advanced weapons systems such as additional THAAD ballistic missile defense batteries. These demands align with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s objectives of diversifying the kingdom’s energy sources while enhancing defense capabilities in the face of regional rival Iran.
While President Joe Biden has not yet made a decision on these requests, it is important to note that any mutual defense pact would require approval from Congress. Despite bipartisan support for a Saudi-Israeli normalization deal, there remains skepticism among influential members of Congress about entangling alliances with the Gulf kingdom.
In addition to the discussions on normalization, the United States is seeking an end to the Yemen war and, reportedly, a significant financial support from Saudi Arabia for Palestinian institutions in the West Bank. The US is also pushing for clear limits on the kingdom’s relations with China.
The position of Israel’s government on such a trilateral understanding remains uncertain. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has previously shown a preference for normalization with Arab states over annexation of the West Bank, but his new right-wing ruling coalition has been moving towards de jure annexation, an action that would defy international law and strain relations with other Middle Eastern leaders.
Publicly, Saudi officials express their insistence on progressing towards a two-state solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. However, according to sources familiar with the discussions, it seems that the kingdom prioritizes its immediate demands over resolving the conflict.
The Biden administration’s strategy in the Middle East centers on promoting integration between regional states to prevent costly military interventions. All the while, the United States faces the challenge of maintaining its economic and strategic influence in the face of China’s ambitions.
Despite this approach, the current administration has not undertaken major diplomatic efforts to revive talks between Israel and the Palestinians regarding a future two-state solution. Furthermore, Biden’s attempts to maintain a close relationship with Netanyahu have thus far yielded limited results. Netanyahu’s coalition continues to announce new settlement authorizations, despite the White House’s repeated pleas to refrain from such actions. Most recently, the Knesset approved a measure that would undermine Israel’s Supreme Court, despite significant domestic protests and opposition from the United States.
