Turkey has received an affirmation from the United States greenlighting the procurement of 40 novel F-16 Block 70 Viper fighter jets. Additionally, Ankara has high anticipations of gaining favor for the acquisition of the same quantity of Eurofighter Typhoons.
“While Ankara secured the F-16 sale, it still needs modern Eurofighters to diversify its fighter fleet,” said Suleyman Ozeren, an esteemed professor lecturer at the American University and recognized fellow at the Orion Policy Institute.
“Additionally, acquiring Eurofighters would significantly increase Turkey’s defense cooperation with Europe.”
Nonetheless, it’s Germany’s sanction that Ankara requires for the transaction to commence, and this approval seems to be a far-off prospect.
Ankara harbors a desire for 40 Eurofighters and was revealed to have been discussing an agreement with the United Kingdom and Spain in later 2023.
While London and Madrid are willing participants in the transaction, it’s German approval that is mandatory to proceed, due to Germany’s participation in the consortium that constructed the Eurofighter.
Germany’s endorsement seems borderline impossible owing to its consistent opposition to numerous contentious policies of the Turkish government. These policy disputes range from Ankara’s reproach towards Israel, hostilities against Syrian Kurds, securing of advanced Russian missiles, and East Mediterranean natural gas exploration initiatives.
Ankara is in negotiations with British and German officials regarding their purchase plans, though Turkey expressed optimism at a recent press conference.
Being a NATO member, Turkey has expressed displeasure at Germany for impeding the deal’s completion, with Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler stating explicitly that such an obstruction from an ally is indefensible.
Germany rebuffed a British deal to sell 48 Eurofighters to Saudi Arabia in 2018, voicing opposition to Saudi’s air campaign against the Houthis in Yemen. It wasn’t until January 2024 when Germany retracted its blockade, allowing the deal to move forward. Yet, it remains unclear if Berlin will make a similar decision regarding Turkey.
If Ankara finally procures Berlin’s approval, this procurement would signal Turkey’s first acquisition of contemporary, non-American fighter jets. This would fulfill Turkey’s “strategic motives,” explained Dr. Ali Bakir, a Turkey expert at Qatar University’s Ibn Khaldon Center.
Bakir explained how the Eurofighter acquisition serves to diversify Turkish military assets, offering an intermediate solution until Turkey develops its 5th-generation fighter jets, bridging the technological gap. Additionally, pursuing the Eurofighter deal could examine Europe’s defense cooperation willingness, enhancing political and economic ties. Should rejection occur, it could expose the duplicitous nature of certain European nations, perhaps encouraging Ankara to pursue non-NATO allies.
Germany’s resistance might soften, Ozeren suggested, due to changing geopolitical conditions, particularly developments in the Ukraine conflict. A potential wave of Middle East refugees could be another factor influencing Berlin’s stance. Predicting Germany’s ultimate decision though, Bakir admits, is a challenging task due to intricate regional and international dynamics.
According to Bakir, some Western states, historical context considered, have been hesitant to enhance Turkey’s military capabilities. These powers seemed geared towards undermining Turkey’s autonomous intentions. This caution predates the establishment of Turkey’s ruling AKP political party and is indicative of a long-standing approach towards Turkey irrespective of its West-leaning government.
Ultimately, if Britain and Turkey fail to sway Germany’s stance, Bakir believes Turkey will explore other alternatives. However, the end goal is not the mere acquisition of another fighter aircraft. Instead, it is tied to a broader ambition of increasing Turkey’s defense and technological autonomy.
