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Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif meets with Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and President Pezeshkian in Tehran, Iranian flag displayed

MBS Is Financing Both Sides of a Conversation He Is Excluded From

April 16, 2026April 16, 2026
Diplomacy & Geopolitics

JEDDAH — On April 15, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif arrived in Jeddah to collect $3 billion in fresh Saudi financing and an

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Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz — NASA satellite image showing the chokepoint through which 20 percent of global crude oil transits daily

The $50 Crude Gap Saudi Arabia Has to Fix Before May 5

April 16, 2026April 16, 2026
Energy & Oil

DHAHRAN — Oil cost $148.87 a barrel on April 13. Oil also cost $99.36 a barrel on April 13. Both numbers are

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Pakistan Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir shakes hands with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Munich Security Conference, February 14, 2026

Asim Munir’s Tehran Gamble

April 16, 2026April 17, 2026
Diplomacy & Geopolitics

TEHRAN — Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir landed in Tehran on April 15, 2026, carrying what Al Jazeera described as “a new

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CENTCOM targeting footage shows IRGC Navy catamaran corvette IRIS Shahid Sayyad Shirazi under strike, marked UNCLASSIFIED, 2026

Iran’s Ceasefire Denial Framework Is Not Propaganda — It Is the Kill Switch

April 16, 2026April 17, 2026
Diplomacy & Geopolitics

RIYADH — The IRGC told the world on April 9 that it had “absolutely not launched any projectiles towards any country” since

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Crude oil tanker docked at the Al Basrah Oil Terminal in the Persian Gulf, loading cargo from an offshore platform

Saudi Arabia’s China Crude Shipments Halved in May as Record OSP Meets $91 Spot Market

April 15, 2026April 16, 2026
Energy & Oil

DHAHRAN — Saudi Arabia’s crude shipments to China will fall to approximately 20 million barrels in May 2026, down from 40 million

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Crude oil tankers berthed at the Al Basra oil export terminal in the northern Arabian Gulf, the primary offshore loading platform for Iraqi and Gulf crude exports

The EIA Gave Saudi Arabia a Price Path It Cannot Survive

April 15, 2026April 16, 2026
Energy & Oil

DHAHRAN — The US Energy Information Administration’s April Short-Term Energy Outlook gives Saudi Arabia a $96 annual Brent average for 2026 —

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NASA MODIS satellite view of the Arabian Peninsula, showing the Red Sea (left), Persian Gulf (right), and Sea of Oman — the three bodies of water named by Iranian General Abdollahi as targets for export interdiction

Abdollahi’s Three-Sea Doctrine Leaves Saudi Arabia With No Export Contingency

April 15, 2026April 15, 2026
Energy & Oil

JEDDAH — Iran’s threat to Saudi Arabia’s export routes is no longer implicit, conditional, or confined to the Strait of Hormuz. On

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PLANS Jiaozuo (DDG-163), a Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy Type 052D guided-missile destroyer, moored during a port visit, flying the Chinese naval flag

China Declares Hormuz “Open to Us” — Saudi Arabia’s Dual-Dependency Architecture at Breaking Point

April 15, 2026April 16, 2026
Diplomacy & Geopolitics

RIYADH — China’s Defense Minister told the world on April 13 that the Strait of Hormuz is “open to us,” and in

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NASA MODIS satellite image of the Strait of Hormuz and Musandam Peninsula — the 21-mile-wide chokepoint through which 7-7.5 million barrels of Saudi oil transited daily before the February 28, 2026 war.

Agreed in Principle, Denied on CNN — The Ceasefire Extension Saudi Arabia Cannot Plan Around

April 15, 2026April 16, 2026
Diplomacy & Geopolitics

RIYADH — On April 15, regional officials told the Associated Press that the United States and Iran had reached “in-principle agreement” to

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NASA MODIS satellite image showing the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman — the contested waterway at the centre of the April 17 multilateral summit

The April 17 Hormuz Summit Has 40 Nations and Zero Saudi Chairs

April 15, 2026April 17, 2026
Diplomacy & Geopolitics

LONDON — When roughly forty nations convene by video on April 17 for the Macron-Starmer Hormuz summit, Saudi Arabia — the country

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IMF headquarters building in Washington DC, where the April 2026 World Economic Outlook cut Saudi Arabia growth forecast from 4.5% to 3.1%

The IMF Cut Saudi Arabia’s Forecast on Data That’s Already Outdated

April 15, 2026April 15, 2026
Diplomacy & Geopolitics

RIYADH — The International Monetary Fund cut Saudi Arabia’s 2026 growth forecast from 4.5% to 3.1% on April 14, and every headline

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Azadi Tower in Tehran at night — the Islamic Republic capital where Ali Khamenei remains unburied 46 days after the February 28 airstrike, as his successor Mojtaba governs by audio from undisclosed Qom location

Mojtaba Khamenei Is Mentally Sharp and Physically Shattered — And No IRGC Commander Can Verify His Ceasefire Order

April 15, 2026April 15, 2026
Diplomacy & Geopolitics

TEHRAN — Iran’s Supreme Leader has not been seen, photographed, or confirmed alive in any verifiable visual or audio format for 46

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Pakistan Air Force C-130 Hercules transport aircraft in flight during Exercise Falcon Talon 2024 in Pakistan

Iran’s Chosen Mediator Is Saudi Arabia’s Contracted Military Auxiliary

April 15, 2026April 17, 2026
Diplomacy & Geopolitics

Table of Contents The Leak and the Landing What Does the SMDA Actually Obligate Pakistan to Do? How Did the SMDA Bypass

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Ships from the U.S. 5th Fleet Combined Task Force 52, NATO, the Royal Navy and the French navy conduct a joint mine countermeasure exercise in the Arabian Gulf, March 2011

Three Frameworks, One Strait

April 15, 2026April 15, 2026
Diplomacy & Geopolitics

RIYADH — Saudi Arabia’s refusal to endorse any of three competing frameworks for reopening the Strait of Hormuz is the clearest evidence

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Satellite view of the Strait of Hormuz and Musandam Peninsula from NASA MODIS Terra satellite, showing the narrow chokepoint between Iran and Oman through which Saudi Arabia once shipped the majority of its crude exports

Saudi Arabia Leads Neither Track for the Strait It Needs Most

April 15, 2026April 15, 2026
Diplomacy & Geopolitics

LONDON — On April 17, more than 40 nations will join a videoconference co-chaired by Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer to plan

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Antalya Diplomacy Forum plenary session panel, Antalya Turkey, with forum branding on screen — venue for the 5th ADF quadrilateral ceasefire meeting April 17-19, 2026

Antalya Quad Ceasefire Extension: What Turkey, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt Can and Cannot Do Before April 22

April 15, 2026April 17, 2026
Diplomacy & Geopolitics

ANTALYA — The quadrilateral meeting among Turkey, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt at the 5th Antalya Diplomacy Forum on April 17-19 is

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UN Security Council chamber during a ministerial session on the Middle East, New York

Iran Demands Compensation From Five Arab States at the UN. It Cannot Collect — But That’s Not the Point.

April 14, 2026April 14, 2026
Diplomacy & Geopolitics

NEW YORK — Iran’s demand that five Arab states pay reparations for enabling US-Israeli strikes is not a legal claim with any

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Large oil tankers loading at Kharg Island export terminal, Persian Gulf — the largest offshore crude loading facility in the world, handling the bulk of Iranian exports

Saudi Arabia Won the Oil Market and Cannot Afford the Victory

April 14, 2026April 16, 2026
Energy & Oil

DHAHRAN — OPEC’s April monthly report confirms what commodity desks already suspected: the Iran war produced the largest crude supply shock in

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The entrance road of the Natanz nuclear enrichment complex in Iran, flying Iranian flags, photographed in 2022

Twenty Years and Five Years and No One Who Counts

April 14, 2026April 16, 2026
Diplomacy & Geopolitics

ISLAMABAD — The fifteen-year gap between Washington’s demand for a twenty-year Iranian enrichment moratorium and Tehran’s offer of five years is not

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A PAC-3 Patriot missile launcher in desert terrain during a Gulf deployment — Saudi Arabia has approximately 400 MSE interceptors remaining, down from 2,800 at the war's start

Iran Says Its Arsenal Is Full Again. Saudi Arabia Has 400 Interceptors Left.

April 14, 2026April 17, 2026
Defence & Security

Iran Says Its Arsenal Is Full Again. Saudi Arabia Has 400 Interceptors Left. RIYADH — The ceasefire that began on April 8

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Commercial crude oil tanker approaching offshore loading terminal in the Arabian Gulf, 2003. The tanker AbQaiq readies to load approximately 2 million barrels at the Mina al-Bakr offshore terminal.

The May OSP Trap: Saudi Arabia’s June Pricing Crisis Has No Exit

April 14, 2026April 16, 2026
Energy & Oil

DHAHRAN — Saudi Arabia set its May Official Selling Price for Arab Light crude to Asia at a record +$19.50 per barrel

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Satellite view of the Strait of Hormuz showing the narrow passage between Iran and Oman, with Qeshm Island visible in the upper centre — the site of the IRGC-controlled Larak-Qeshm corridor

China Sent Two Signals on Day One of the Hormuz Blockade — Neither Was an Accident

April 14, 2026April 16, 2026
Diplomacy & Geopolitics

China Sent Two Signals on Day One of the Hormuz Blockade — Neither Was an Accident DUBAI — Within hours of the

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Bab al-Mandeb Strait satellite view showing Yemen coastline, Djibouti and Perim Island

Saudi Arabia’s Blockade Objection Is About the Red Sea, Not Iran

April 14, 2026April 15, 2026
Energy & Oil

JEDDAH — Saudi Arabia’s formal request that Washington lift the Iran blockade is not a diplomatic gesture toward Tehran. It is a

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NASA MODIS satellite image of the Strait of Hormuz showing Qeshm Island and the narrow Larak corridor, December 2020

The First Ship Through the Blockade Was Sanctioned. The US Navy Let It Pass.

April 14, 2026April 15, 2026
Diplomacy & Geopolitics

DUBAI — A sanctioned Chinese tanker carrying 250,000 barrels of methanol sailed through the Strait of Hormuz overnight on the first day

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Riyadh skyline at dusk — Saudi Arabia's capital where Crown Prince MBS will host Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on April 15, 2026

Shehbaz Sharif’s Riyadh Visit: Saudi Arabia Bought Pakistan’s Mediation for $5 Billion

April 14, 2026April 16, 2026
Diplomacy & Geopolitics

RIYADH — Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed bin Abdullah al-Jadaan landed in Islamabad on April 11 — the same day JD Vance sat

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